The It Factor

November 18th, 2011
Portland @ Indiana, Charlotte @ Philadelphia, Milwaukee @ Toronto, New Jersey @ New Orleans, Miami @ Cleveland, Atlanta @ Detroit, San Antonio @ Minnesota, Denver @ Oklahoma City, Sacramento @ Dallas, LA Clippers @ Utah, Washington @ Golden State, Chicago @ Phoenix

Welcome back after a day off the blogosphere on Thursday. Friday brings us another big slate games that should have been played. New Jersey and New Orleans highlight a battle of 2 of the best point guards in the league in Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Each has their own style of play and its always entertaining to watch them go head to head. Of course, Paul might be high jacking his way out of New Orleans by now to try and joining Melo and Amare in New York so at least we aren't getting sick of that story yet. Chicago and Phoenix also highlight a great point guard battle, this one defined by the old and young with Derrick Rose and Steve Nash. Denver and OKC have a big divisional game and it'll be interesting to see if the new look Nuggets continue to gel and play as a team without a true Superstar on the squad. Miami also visits Cleveland and that should be fun to see the latest Anti-LeBron campaign. The young Clippers have a great chance to pick up a win in Utah, and who has emerged as Minnesota's point guard? There is also a great chance the Washington Golden State game has a total of close to 300 points with both of those teams lacking to play any kind of defense. These are the speculatory stories we should be talking about, but once again, we are not.

What we are talking about is Timothy Richard Tebow. With just under 6 minutes to play, the Broncos we facing a 95 yard field down by 3 to the New York Jets. Through the first 3 plus quarters, Tebow looked pedestrian at best. An interception returned for a touchdown by Andre Goodman was the only thing keeping the Broncos in the game. Now the game is on the line, and that means one thing. Its Tebow Time! With only 2 carries for 11 yards prior to this drive, Tebow once again put the game on his back (and legs). On top of completing a couple passes he ran for 57 yards capped off by the game winning touchdown on a 3rd and 4 scramble for 20 yards. The defense holds on, the Broncos win. Unbelievable. The 70,000 plus at Sports Authority Field at Mile High going bonkers. All I could do was laugh. I couldn't explain what I just saw. Tim Tebow may not be conventional, but he somehow manages to put everything we have come to learn about a NFL quarterback aside and get the job done. His team believes in him and so do the fans. The feeling of the game is never over is something we haven't felt around here since John Elway was taking the snaps. We are learning to adapt to a new style. Whatever "it" is, Tebow has "it" and lots of it. I've decided to stop trying to explain it. I have no idea what I'm going to see when the Broncos take the field. All I know is that the team will play hard and if the score is close the other team better watch out. He will have to win a couple Superbowls to dethrone the great Elway, but nobody has even come close to capturing the fan base like this since Elway retired. The Broncos are currently sitting 1/2 game out of first place behind the Raiders and are very much in the thick of things for the division crown. I'm on board, and can't wait to watch how the rest of this ride pans out.

Now onto the rest of my picks for Week 11 in the NFL. The Broncos gave me my first win of the week, I hope I can keep it up. Home teams in CAPS.

Tennessee (+6) over ATLANTA .
If I've learned anything from this NFL season is that I have no idea what's going on. I don't know if its because of the lockout or what, but there seem to be more than a few teams that confuse the hell out of me. I'm not sure either one of these teams are good. Tennessee has a chance to get back in the AFC South race with the loss of Matt Schaub for Houston and I think they are going to play inspired due to that. I just don't trust the Falcons so I'm going with Tennessee and taking the points.

MIAMI (-1.5) over Buffalo.
The Bills were a good story through the first month of the season. It was fun to talk about quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick in a Boston accent... "That guy is wicked smaht, he went to Havahd" Now the Bills are back to being the Bills. Miami is coming off a beat down they gave the Chiefs and a win at home against the Redskins. They seem to be rolling right now. Reggie Bush is showing some life in South Beach and I think the Dolphins pick up their 3rd win in a row at home.

BALTIMORE (-7) over Cincinnati.
Me, myself, and Joe Flacco. Beat the Steelers, lose to the Titans. Win 3 in a row, lose to Seattle. Which team will show up? The Bengals played the Steelers tough last week and Andy Dalton is proving to be a solid young quarterback (even being a Ginger). AJ Green is questionable and is Daltons best WR. I'm hoping the good Ravens team shows up and wins by more than a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+1) over CLEVELAND.
This has the potential of being a 9-6 game. Yippie! I'm glad I don't live in either of these markets and have the option of watching anything else. I had big expectations for the Browns and they haven't lived up to them. I'm going with the Jags, partially out of spite.

MINNESOTA (+1) over Oakland.
Carson Palmer, meet Jared Allen. Now repeat this process at least 5 times. Minnesota did get smacked last week by Green Bay, but they also played them tough a couple weeks prior. Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder looks like he can be pretty good. The Broncos ran all over the Raiders 2 weeks ago and they don't have anyone that resembles Adrian Peterson. The Vikings win this one.

DETROIT (-7) over Carolina.
Last week Matt Stafford looked AWFUL! He has a broken finger (or at least I hope that story is true the way he was throwing the ball) and it showed. This is a big game for the Lions. They are looking at the Packers on a short week on Thanksgiving so this is pretty much a must win to keep them in playoff contention. I think they are the better team, and Cam Newton will have trouble dealing with their defensive front. Take it down Detroit.

GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay.
I think 20 points is about the number I'd start thinking about taking Tampa in the battle of the Bays. Josh Freeman has regressed and so has LeGarrette Blount running the ball. Aaron Rodgers, in case you haven't heard yet by everyone who talks about football for a living, is the best quarterback in the history of quarterbacks.... I might have exaggerated a little, but the guy is good and he's going to have plenty of chances to do the "Discount Double Check" dance this week.

Dallas (-7) over WASHINGTON.
The Cowboys are starting to click, and Washington is sliding. DeMarco Murray is the steal of the draft so far rushing for over 600 yards once Felix Jones got hurt. Now they have a 1-2 punch to counter a deep receiving core. I don't know if the Redskins are going with John Beck or Rex Grossman, and I don't think it matters. Dallas rolls on the road this week.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Arizona.
The 49ers are legit. They have defensive toughness and don't make too many mistakes on offense. Although I can't believe that John Skelton turned out to be better than Kevin Kolb for the Cards, they don't have enough to compete in this one. This game could get ugly, and out of control real quick. San Fran welcome to the winners circle, and division crown by Thanksgiving.

Seattle (+3) over ST LOUIS.
Another crappy game I'm glad I don't have to watch. Seattle is coming off a win against the Ravens and I think they can carry that momentum for one more week and pick up a win against a divisional opponent on the road. If nothing else it just makes me happy when Josh McDaniels loses.

CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego.
As much as it pains me to say it, Jay Cutler looks really, really good. Matt Forte would be considered a MVP candidate if Aaron Rodgers wasn't already handed the award, and their defense makes big plays at the right time. The only thing I'm having a harder time to explain than Tim Tebow is why teams still kick the ball to Devin Hester. I don't get it, but it still happens. Can we please write off the Chargers for good? Every year with this team we predict that "this will be their year" and then they suck. Da Bears take da win.

Philadelphia (+5) over NY GIANTS.
The Giants are the better team. They are playing pretty good football. The Eagles have choked away 5 leads in the 4th quarter to lose. Vince Young or Mike Kafka might be quarterback. What about this pick makes sense? I don't know either. I predict a close game, and even if the Eagles blow another 4th quarter lead at least I have the points.

NEW ENGLAND (-15) over Kansas City.
The classic Tom Brady against Tyler Palko match up. The Chiefs have had a down year and have been destroyed by injuries this season, the latest being Matt Cassell. The Patriots looked like the Pats of old last week beating the Jets 37-16 and I think they continue to roll with a chance to be the number one seed in the AFC.

That's all for now. Enjoy you're weekend and we'll be back next week.

Until Next Time,
Dan